The NASCAR Sprint Cup series is back in action this weekend, racing Saturday night under the lights in the desert at Phoenix International Raceway. Phoenix is the kind of track that crew chiefs lose sleep over; with different banking in both corners plus a tri-oval backstretch, it is almost like a one-mile version of Pocono. Every part of the track offers something different, and that makes setting up a car difficult.
Because of its unique nature, there is a pretty big gap between the teams that have figured Phoenix out and the rest of the pack. Here are some best-bet picks for your NASCAR Fantasy team this weekend:
Favorites at Phoenix International Raceway
1. Jimmie Johnson – If there is one driver that has truly dominated at Phoenix, it is Jimmie Johnson. Not only does Johnson have three straight wins in the desert, but his average career finish there is 5.5, and Johnson has not finished lower than fourth in the past five Phoenix races. Add to that the fact that Johnson is coming into this weekend with three straight Top-5 finishes, and he is the clear favorite to win. Johnson is always worth considering for a NASCAR fantasy roster, but this is one of his must-start races.
2. Jeff Burton – Burton got off to a slow start this season, but has looked much stronger the past three races and is due for a strong weekend at Phoenix. Burton has two wins at the Arizona track, but his success here goes much farther than checkered flags; Burton has top-10 finishes in five of his last six here, and has not finished outside the top-15 since 1996. Burton’s average finish at Phoenix is 11th, but that is deceptive; if you throw out his less-than-stellar results the first few years he raced here, his average finish since 1994 is 7.6. Burton may not immediately come to mind as a NASCAR fantasy starter, but could pay big dividends Saturday.
Safe Picks for a Solid Phoenix Finish
1. Carl Edwards – Edwards has not been the best at short tracks this season, but that should all change at Phoenix. From its flat corners to its challenging layout, it is the type of racing that seems tailor made for Edwards driving style. Carl has only finished outside the top-11 twice in his career at Phoenix, including fourth-place finishes in both races last season. He looked great in last weekend’s Nationwide series race at Nashville, a track that is comparable to Phoenix in its layout, and that momentum should carry through to this weekend for another strong finish.
2. Kevin Harvick – There is a pretty big gap between Johnson and the rest of the pack at Phoenix, but Kevin Harvick is one of the drivers capable of competing with the No. 48 team. Harvick has not been very dominant at Phoenix over the past few years, but certainly knows his way to victory lane the one-mile tri-oval; he has two wins and four top-10 finishes in his last six races here. Harvick has been inconsistent this season, but if there is a track where he can break out of his slump, this is it. Harvick does offer some risk, but since he has flown under a lot of fantasy owner’s radar this season, could offer a big payoff on your roster.
3. Denny Hamlin – Hamlin came up one spot short in the past two short track races, coming in second at both Bristol and Martinsville, and is hoping to finally get a win Saturday night at Phoenix. Hamlin has a great record here, with an average finish of 11th and top-5 finishes in four of the last five in the desert. Confidence seems to be a bit of an issue with Hamlin, but only when it comes to getting a checkered flag. He should be a solid bet for another top-10 by the end of the night.
Phoenix Underdogs
1. Bobby Labonte – Labonte’s results have been inconsistent at Phoenix the past few years, but he definitely knows his way around the one-mile track; Labonte has an average finish of 16th at Phoenix over 20 career races, and has four straight finishes of 19th or better, including an eighth place in this race two years ago. The No. 96 team is still looking for a repeat performance of their fifth place finish a few weeks ago in Las Vegas, and Labonte could be a good candidate for a surprise this weekend.
2. Martin Truex, Jr. – Truex, Jr. is truly an underdog, especially with his results so far this season, but his recent success at Phoenix makes him an intriguing pick. Truex has qualified well here throughout his short career, and both of his top-10 Phoenix finishes have come in the past three races. Teammate Juan Montoya has looked really strong this year, and eventually some of that success will rub off on Truex, who is overdue for a good finish.
3. Marcos Ambrose – Ambrose may be more of a long shot than Truex, but there is some logic to including him on a fantasy NASCAR roster; he finished 18th here last year in a car that was still under development, and his two best finishes this season came at short tracks, with a 10th at Bristol and a 14th at Martinsville. Ambrose is carrying a lot of momentum into Phoenix, and while he may not be top-10 again this weekend, it would not be a surprise to see him with another strong finish.
Phoenix is all about car setup and track position, so it is best to go with past success here when picking NASCAR fantasy drivers. Johnson is the class of the field, and drivers like Edwards and Burton could challenge for the win, but finding drivers that will get consistent results out of the bottom of your roster will give you an edge in your NASCAR fantasy league.
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